Category Archives: Future of Online Video

Yet Another “Share Revenue” Video Site

The online video market is getting more crowded. Here’s another revenue-sharing model in the lines of Revver and Eefoof and Motion.tv. It’s called Flixya. I discovered it from some self-promotional comments posted on popular YouTube videos.

Looks interesting, but the proof is in the pudding. I’ve asked Marquis to post his earnings to date on various sites (and he hasn’t tested Flixya). We need more content creators to do this so we’re not all wasting our times on cool sites with no traffic. Here’s his report from this morning:

Got my earnings statements for July from Motion.TV and eefoof today. I earned .61 cents at Motionless and $8.64 at foofaddle.

He’s earned thousands on Revver, but he’s been posting since 2005 and has a lot more content there. We content creators all want to know where we can make the most dough in the easiest way.

A pure “what site can I make the most $” experiment will require the following:

  1. The same videos are uploaded during the same time period to multiple sites.
  2. Revenue is calculated for JUST that time period (recognizing the lag effect of payouts).
  3. If you publicize that video through other channels, you have to do it equally for each of the sites (for instance, if I feature my Revver video on CubeBreak or a blog… but not my Eefoof version, I’ve biased the study). For best results, don’t publicize any.
  4. You need to test at least 10 videos to mitigate the “confounding variable” of one site “featuring” that video and skewing the test.
  5. The other confounding variable is that the sites’ traffic is changing rapidly. So if one site becomes exponentially more popular in months ahead that changes our earning potential

I’m laying this out but I suddenly don’t have the time to do this experiment because I just took a new job. And Marquis is fixing his mom’s toilet. Anyone else interested in giving this a run? We’ll creative the “definitive guide to online video revenue-sharing sites.” Oh- don’t raise your hand if you’re going to do this. It will bias the study because the site might treat you like the chef that discovers the Food critic is at the restaurant.

flixya.jpg

YouTube Goes Bankrupt

bubble-burst-youtube.jpgNo- YouTube hasn’t gone bankrupt. I make up headlines to ensure RSS readers pop in for a visit. I’m allowed to do that because I’m not a journalist I’m a blogger. I can even do this in the middle of a post… 😉  Furthermore I could make up data and not attribute quotes, but I’ve got some of my journalistic integrity in me despite my move into marketing.

YouTube probably won’t ever go bankrupt. But we at WillVideoForFood think a bust is coming to YouTube (see video). Tick tock. Log your vote on the exact day in the comments section of the above tab… Read the definition carefully before you get all “idonothingallday” brave and say it’s going to be mid year 2007. And remember- It’s not just about the free t-shirt. It’s about the fame that comes with predicting a bubble burst.

Have you ever watched a bubble before it pops? It goes from being quite colorful to suddenly taking an ominous black lava-lamp look. At that point I pretend to shoot them with my finger and my kids think I have magic bubble-popping skills.

Used TV for Sale

broken_tv.jpgSix months ago I’d be falling asleep on my couch right now watching TV. But here’s a classic example of how I’m “leaning forward” instead of “leaning back.” Unless your grandson is reading this post to you, you’re probably making a similar transition.
“Here’s my travel log, and keep in mind that for online video viewing, the journey is as important as the destination.” (copyright Kevin Nalty, under creative commons)

First I visit the Revver Blog. Wonder what Micki’s up to? I see the Technorati “blogs that link here,” and I give it a “looksee.” I want to punch people who use that word. Notice SaveMentosNow, which in this post condemned a video that teaches us how to make a DietCoke/Mentos Soda Weapon. Funny clip. It’s nice to know I’m not the only one exploiting my kids for financial gain on Revver.

I click the creator’s name and it’s MunkyButterDotCom, who also created Sportsdad Blooper Funny Baseball Outtake (the video with the longest name ever) which has reached an impressive >7,000 views on Revver.
Now I see they’ve got a website called SodaSoaker.com, which is a redirect to MunkyButter.com. Good branding in that. Except for the fact that MonkeyButter is owned by someone else. Meanwhile MunkyButter is featuring some good video clips, and also my Prank the Garbage Man.

munky-butter.jpgSo there are 3 important take-aways from this post:

1) I don’t believe the studies that suggest online video isn’t cannibalizing tube time. It is, and will continue to until the lines blur between television and online video.

2) Check out MunkyButter. I just introduced you to it and saved you 12 clicks.

3) My wife just fell asleep to Young & The Restless. Irony?

The Article That Popped the Online Video Zit

pimple.jpgKevin Maney of the USAToday wrote the article that might pop the Internet online video zit. And it needs to be popped. I can’t stop looking at it. I just want to take my thumbs together and pop that pulsating red and white pimple. Because only when it’s gone can we move to the interesting era.

This morning I decided to make a video in which I would dub myself YouTube’s “emperer is wearing no clothes” guy. Haven’t finished it yet, but the point of it will be that this space (YouTube especially) is overvalued. A BILLION for YouTube? That’s probably one-million-times earnings. Not a good ratio. I see about two or three viable online videos. The rest will vanish.

So here’s this article, which is a great read if you’re interested in the business behind online videos… it’s called “Mania Strikes Web Again: Video Madness Takes Off.” It’s the best piece of journalism I’ve read on this space (and believe me I’ve read my share in the past 6 months). We’ll soon see some me-too articles like it, and this could lead to the online video bubble burst. Eventually my sister (a freelancer at ABC) will realize this is newsworthy and she’ll pitch a story. Right now she’s like “whatever… YouTube is sooooo popular.” And then while the next era of online video is quietly building, we’ll continue to see 6 months of news stories that say what Kevin did today. At least the business articles. The entertainment stories will still be about how some kid got famous on the Internet.

Up until now the mass media has been in some sort of weird hypnotic trance. It’s all about the online videos, and nothing about the revenue or sustainability. But Maney comes in with this incredibly sober and well-documented article. Here are the highlights:

  • Web video sites are proliferating like bunnies that broke into a vat of Viagra.
  • Tech blogger Om Malik calls it “the madness.”
  • In just the past year or so, Internet video sites have exploded from barely any to more than 240.
  • New ones appear every week.
  • Venture capital (VC) firms pumped $156 million into online video in the first half of 2006, according to Dow Jones VentureOne. That’s up from basically nothing a couple of years ago.
  • VC firms have raised $18 billion for their funds this year, up 41% from 2005, according to the National Venture Capital Association.

Because fund rules state that the money has to be invested, the VCs are kind of like a guy who has been drinking all night and has a bladder the size of Lake Huron. They’ll go the first place that looks promising.

kevin_maney.jpgInterestingly, the following paragraph got yanked from the story that’s live now: “Analysts keep fanning the fire with outrageous predictions. PricewaterhouseCoopers released a report saying that by 2010, online video will be a $1.8 trillion industry. That’s about what the USA now spends on health care in a year. If PricewaterhouseCoopers is right, then if YouTube continues to control 60% of the market, by 2010 it will be a $1.1 trillion company.” A message on USAToday article PriceWaterhouseCoopers’ Entertainment and Media Outlook predicts that the entire entertainment and media industry will be $1.8 trillion by 2010. An earlier version of the story misstated PWC’s outlook.”

I prefer to accept the first version because I kinda like the idea of PWC totally overstating the online video market. Anyway, aren’t they IBM now? Kevin- thanks for correcting it, but I’m going choosing to remember the first one. Anybody ever go back and look at the Forrester and Jupiter 2000-2005 expectations on doc-com revenue that were written in 1999? Now THAT’s madness.

How Google Ate YouTube

Jason Dowdell of “Marketing Shift,” writes this about Google vs. YouTube:

For the moment YouTube appears to have an insurmountable lead in the user-generated video space. YouTube has the quirky, clever, and oddball content from thousands of individuals, while Google Video has Mr. Magoo and Charlie Rose. However, Google has several things — namely Google Checkout and an advertising network — that YouTube doesn’t, and the power of the purse could turn the tide. IF Google placed more ads on its website and shared some of the revenue with contributors, they would get many of the YouTubers to post on its website. Google should make a deposit to each contributor’s Checkout account, let’s say $4 for every thousand videos streamed. (Or, Google could pay a smaller amount by check if people really don’t want to participate in Checkout.)

Maybe Jason is one of the majority of people that don’t know that a revenue-sharing model already exist. If that’s the case, it makes this post even more interesting.

Here’s WillVideoForFood’s recommended introduction for the Harvard Business Study “B Case” on YouTube: “Chad Hurley sat at his window looking out over the empty parking lot of YouTube (ever notice how many HBR case studies start like this). How had he let the $400 million offer slip away, and how had his company been overtaken by Google? What happened to his site- once the most popular online video site on the Internet?”

eat.jpgHere’s how Google will Eat YouTube by 4th Quarter 2006. Is anyone writing this down?

  • Placing video thumbnails on all search results (like they do with Google images)
  • Sharing revenue with creators
  • Cutting legitimate deals with valuable content owners (including networks)
  • Using the advanced indexing to search other video sites.
  • Provide contextual ad serving so advertisers can select relevant videos. If I’m selling Tampons I want to advertise on that annoying teenager talking about her cat. If I’m selling Gatorade I want to be all over the extreme videos.

The result? YouTube remains as a very popular online video community. As much as I knock YouTube, it’s a trend setter. It will live on. I’ve watched the functionality grow, and it’s got a giant leap above competitors not just in traffic but in user experience. But common. Google can gulp.

Memo to Chad Hurley: Sell YouTube, You Moron

The New York Post ‘s Tim Arango reports that YouTube could go for a billion dollars. Chad Hurley, YouTube founder, could make $400 million in the transaction.

These YouTube guys haven’t paid a bit of attention to my rants since I’ve been blogging about them for the past 6 months. But trust me in that Chad Hurley will be the Internet’s poster child for morons if he doesn’t sell right now.

YouTube is wonderful pre-Internet-bubble puffery, and the big media companies want a piece of the online video space. YouTube is white hot, with the largest share of the online video pie and constant media coverage. No business model proven, and major copyright issues ahead.

Sell, Chad. In about 3 months you’ll be grateful for a tenth of that. I don’t know a lot, but I know two things well… entrepreneurship and online video. Trust me on this one.

YouTube Uploader Gets Sued For Copyright Infringement

Prison for YouTubeSensational headline, and not yet true (that I’m aware). But it will be this summer. If you’re ripping off TV and uploading it, you can’t hide behind YouTube. Remember the Napster days when a few individuals got singled out and brought to court? We’ll soon see a few high-profile lawsuits against not YouTube but its uploaders. “YouTube Stirs Napster Memories in Digital Movie Era” is the title of this article by Jennifer LeClaire of TechNewWorld.

“YouTube users likewise face exposure to liability for copyright infringement, to the extent that they distribute copyrighted works to YouTube or other users by ‘digital phonorecord delivery,’ which the Copyright Act defines as an individual delivery which results in a reproduction of a phonorecord by or for any transmission recipient,” Norgaard told TechNewsWorld.

(Photo: “Closer dear, closer.”)

The DailyReel Debuts to Save You the Hunt for Good Videos

tdr_280.jpgA new entrant to the online video space… The Daily Reel bills itself as a “news magazine that covers online video, selects the best content, and offers critical analysis from the industry’s top journalists.”

This one looks for real. Here’s the “about.” Contributors include Matthew Ross (Variety), Anthony Kaufman, (indieWire, Wall Street Journal Online), Marjorie Baumgarten (The Austin Chronicle), and Steve Friess (Newsweek, New York Times and Wired). There are now too many video sites and lots of amateur sites that attempt to identify good stuff (this blog and my CubeBreak included).

DailyReel is making the ambitious attempt to keep the best stuff (from any site) featured. Anyone who has weeded their way through crap on other online video sites will appreciate this.

I’ve been waiting for it to enter its beta since weeks ago they sent an e-mail expressing interest in Blackberry Crackberry as a “TDR Top 10.” They asked for a bunch of details about the “production.” The hardest part was estimating budget for it. Umm… does the diner meal we ate count? Little known fact about the Crackberry video: After we shot that bit where my wife discovers my Blackberry behind the diner menu, my 2-year-old power puked all over the floor. We left in a hurry, and no I did not videotape it.

I don’t get paid by DailyReel, but they’ve maintained the video as a Revver-served one. So they get an affiliate fee if someone clicks the ad, and I split the rest with Revver. I’m just flattered to have a spot next to friggin’ Futurama, Where is Matt, and Ask a Ninja. I’m not worthy.

How Will Online Video Sites Deal With Liability? Can They Have Their Souflee And Eat It Too?

soufflee.jpgJean-Baptiste Soufron is French, Chief Legal Officer of the Wikimedia Foundation, writes in this recent blog post that “more and more copyrighted content are being uploaded on their servers without the proper authorizations from copyright owners.”

Says Soufron, their content is too often violating third parties copyright or privacy, they expose their users to the same legal threat and their problem will only increase with the new laws that are being passed worldwide….these new companies are trying to build a business without taking the necessary steps to comply with the existing copyright or privacy regulations. There is no need to insist on the danger of this approach, but it is worth pointing out that this development scheme already proved to be quite unsuccessful when looking at the record of Napster, Grokster and others.

How are (YouTube) going to defend against the logic of law if they come with a business model where they don’t respect other’s copyrigth (sic) on one part, and they try to get rights for free from users on the other one? Where will be their legitimacy in front of the Court?

Soufron, whose name sounds like a delicious French desert, offers the following solutions, none of which I understand:

  • Maintaining state-of-the-art filters to avoid the simpliest form of copyright and privacy violations
  • Creating some clearinghouse for copyright and privacy, including some clear explanations of what is allowed and what is not
  • Ensuring legal advices to their users when they are of good faith
  • Work with art service organizations and collecting societies to investigate insurance possibilities, and obtain statement of best practices
  • Investigate opportunities for amending law in order to reduce penalties, to protect good faith users from penalties, to create alternative dispute resolution mechanisms, etc.

Viral Video: The NEW Reality TV

Reality TV has obviously hit its peak and on the decline. What’s next? Viral video according to this Pittsburgh Tribune article by Andrew Johnson. It’s a nice article that tracks the EepyBird explosion and identifies a number of other top viral sources (see more below).

Obviously we at WillVideoForFood hope the viral video fad sticks around for a while. But it’s probably short lived. People will eventually tire of viral video… like when you eat Candy Corn. The first couple handfulls are great, but then all of a sudden you realize you’re eating waxed sucrose. And you long to consumer video that’s more than “Doritos for the Brain.”

When the viral video craze ends, we’ll return to wanting good scripted television shows (and maybe some of those will derive from the viral craze). That’s my humble opinion. But I hope that’s at least 18 months away.

Continue reading Viral Video: The NEW Reality TV