NOTE: Log your votes on the above tab “YouTube Bubble-Burst Pool.”
We’re having a WillVideoForFood Pool on when YouTube’s bubble bursts. I’m saying 67 days. Here’s how the pool works.
You guess the exact days between now and the bust, and submit that number as a comment. The bust will be defined by any of the following:
- YouTube falls from the number one position for online videos (it’s leading by miles so this won’t happen first)
- YouTube announces its sale to a large media player, who ultimately over commercialize, sanitize and ride the business down a black hole. The deal doesn’t have to be complete for this condition to be satisfied.
- YouTube has a cover story on its failed business model by any of the following publications: Newsweek, Time, Forbes, or Fortune.
The day one of these things happen, I’ll return to the post and find the winner. That winner will receive a “I Guessed the Date of YouTube’s Demise” t-shirt (custom made at CafeExpress) and a special WVFF blog post that hails the individual as the great forecaster of the end of YouTube and the beginning of the next generation of online video. This burst is a critical step in the maturity of this market, and I want to get it over with quickly. That’s why I’m going with 67 days.
Put in your vote. You gotta vote to win.