Tag Archives: 2009

book, Online Video

Dismal Advertising Forecast- But Online-Video Has Immunity Idol

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Despite this gloomy IDC report (AdAge) about online-advertising contracting, online video will flourish. And I’m not the only guy who thinks so.

IDC’s director for digital media and entertainment, Karsten Weide, tells AdAge that online advertising spending will be soft the first half of 2009 (but online advertising will do better than the economy at large). Weide says video is currently “enjoying the high ground,” especially as use increases.

“People are accessing video services not just on their PCs, but increasingly in the living room,” he said. “That is really where it’s at.”

Now the IDC tends to focus on ad spend that it can measure, and that includes things like display ads besides video, overlay ads (pop-up over bottom 20%), and those satanic pre-rolls.  What it doesn’t always include is the big content deals between brands and media properties that don’t run through agencies or media buyers. Daisy Whitney has pointed this out before.

There’s also another aspect of online-video that is often missed: Revenue for content creators & online-video “stars” that aren’t really advertising… sponsorships, custom content, product placement, and the like. If you include video production that is deployed online (and you shouldn’t), the online-video share of ad dollars is far higher.

I like a booms or a busts because they favor innovation. A boom means lots of experimental spending. A bust means dollars move to stupid vehicles to higher impact and targeted vehicles, and online video only needs one thing this year...

Online-video needs to demonstrate business value beyond awareness (reach/frequency) and direct response (and it’s a crappy vehicle for the latter). That means I hope to see Dynamic Logic and Insight Express surveys (surveys comparing test versus control) that show the impact of online-video on attitude, intent and purchase behavior. And I want them nowwwww!!!! People?

Here’s why online-video gets a crappy rap. It’s often compared to the CPM of display ads. That’s like comparing a grocery flier to good advice from a friend. Online-video is getting exponentially more attention (as defined by awareness of the actual content), and often the context gives it an additional credibility boost. If my favorite online-video star endorses a product, it’s more meaningful — I trust you’ll agree — than an ad alone.

So let’s get those studies going, people. You want free content “on demand” from your couch? You gotta show marketers this works.

book, Online Video

Amateur Commercial Beats Agency Ads in Superbowl

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It’s not the first year a Superbowl ad was produced by an amateur (source: Advertising Age report on USAToday poll).

But this year’s $2000.00 commercial featuring a crystal ball getting tossed into a Doritos machine beat many of the Madison-created commercials. It’s a good day for companies like Poptent/Xlntads, which contract with amateurs to produce TV and web commercials. The folks that produced the Doritos spot (see video below) have been awarded a million-dollar contract as a result. Not bad. I still like mine better, not that I’m biased.

Carla McLeod, CMO of Zeta Interactive, a digital agency that monitors buzz, said that “Free Doritos” was also the best-performing Super Bowl ad in the blogosphere. Not only did the spot have the most posts in hours following the game, but nearly 90% of the posts were positive. “People thought it was a fun, memorable ad,” she said. “It really resonated with that audience.”

In related news, the video I posted featuring my top-1o Superbowl 2009 commercials has been viewed 240,000 times in the past 24 hours (more than 6 times the number of people than fit into the stadium for yesterday’s Superbowl), and this blog has been viewed in the past 24 hours more than ever before– in fact 4x the second highest day. Oh I’m not bragging, mind you. Nope. Just letting you know the thirst remains high for Superbowl ad buzz.

book, Online Video

Draft: Online-Video Predictions for 2009

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I’m drafting my 2009 predictions for online video. I’m trying really hard not to repeat previous predictions, and to be realistic about what can happen in a year. This space has made enormous changes in 2008. Last month I made more on YouTube advertising revenue than I made in a month from my first job out of business school. Still not enough to live on, but a trend that I hope continues.

Here are some initial predictions, and I hope you expert readers will chime in. I’m rushing off to get the kids out the house, so this is just “top of mind” stuff:

  1. More amateurs will make full-time living via video ad revenue
  2. Dramatic shifts of online spending to video advertising: especially cost-per-click ads around relevant content
  3. 2009 is the year of the “semi pros.” The monetization is not significant enough for major players, but we’ll see many vloggers replaced by clever comedy troupes that adapt content for web… and create addictive content cheaply.
  4. SEO will awaken marketers to the potential of video– if I can get a top organic placement by tagging a popular video appropriately, that’s a short cut to the top of Google… a coveted spot.
  5. YouTube will continue to grow as market leader, but I believe some of the 2nd tier players will increase share. As the market matures, YouTube will remain #1, but the other sites (Yahoo, MSN) will start to attract new audiences, and steal share.
  6. Monetization options will greatly increase. Google will pressure YouTube to monetize the site, not because it needs cash but because it knows that it can’t attract professional content without better ways to monetize.
  7. We’ll see standardization of video ads, and new models like “overlay” (InVideo ads) that are less intrusive than pre-rolls but provide viewers with relevant video content.
  8. More of YouTube views will occur off YouTube via embedded video on other sites… as long as site owners can access free content and monetize the views.

What else?