Online-Video Experts Share 2009 Highlights and 2010 Predictions

First of all… the snow. Does it stay or go? I kinda like it, but when a vlogbrother says it’s “gotta go” it gives you pause.

I just invited a few of my favorite thought-leaders in online video to write a guest blog post about 2009 highlights and 2010 predictions. If you’re steeped in online video (as a creator, industry expert, marketer, journalist) and can write goodly, please feel free to e-mail me your own short guest post.

As 2009 wraps up, I am going to review my annual predictions (nailed some, but been quite wrong on others) and put some serious thought into where 2010 is headed.

I’m still surprised at how fast AND slow this online-video space is maturing.

Some amazing things have occurred in 2009 (we’re seeing networks, cable companies, marketers and technology firms getting quite serious about online-video distribution). But a few of my long-standing predictions have not yet proven accurate.

  1. I thought we’d see a popularity shift from amateur vloggers to professional creators (that still doesn’t appear to be happening). The most-viewed video creators are still individual “web stars” with minimal costs and largely 0ne-man bands.
  2. We still haven’t have broken down the gaping chasm between “lean forward” computer-driven online video consumption and “lean backward” viewing on that giant monitor we call still call a television set. Sure some of us are using some band-aid approaches (Roku, Boxee, AppleTV, Netflix, web-enabled televisions, and home-grown tricks). But I’m truly surprised we don’t yet have a broadly marketeted, low-cost ($200 or less) hardware device that allows us to surf web video from our television using a simple processor, wireless receiver and wireless keyboard/mouse. Then again, it was 1998 when I almost purchased a Dell “media” device to enable this. Unlike mobile, this area seems to be caught in a Catch22, and some fierce protectionism by big-stake players.
  3. Most importantly, I remain perplexed at how cautious media buyers have been. We’ve seen tremendous shifts from other mediums to online-video, but the advertising inventory remains widely available. I believe this is due to buyers using banner metrics to assess a different medium. I’m trying to echo my mantra that “an impression isn’t an impression unless it makes one,” and show advertisers that they’re underestimating the persuasive impact of online-video advertising because they’re obsessed with CPMs (cost per million impressions) and click-thru rates. If we had held television to those criteria, we’d probably still have 3 television networks and perhaps be viewing black & white programming.

As most of you WillVideoForFood readers know, I’m writing a book with Wiley publishing (tentatively called “Beyond Viral Video”). So I am hoping these guest posts awaken me (and you) to dimensions I don’t see as a marketer & YouTube personality.

Stay tuned for what I hope will be some interesting insights!

22 Replies to “Online-Video Experts Share 2009 Highlights and 2010 Predictions”

  1. The snow: it’s cute but I think I’m tired of if by now. Kind of like I’d probably be sick of the weather if it had been snowing nonstop for a week.

    I guess I’m a “though-leader” since I got your email this morning. Maybe I’ll write something. Gotta warn you though, I don’t know if I can write a short post.

  2. By the way Kevin, CPM does not stand for “cost per million”. It is short for “cost per mille” from the Latin for “thousand”. Surely you knew that, right?

  3. I agree Kevin it’s surprising that there isn’t more TV’s out there connected via broadband, I guess it’s because there still isn’t a “killer app” for that. In time…

    I’m sure it was just a typo Alexis because Kevin knows as well as anyone that CPM means cost per thousand. Right Nalts!

    It is surprising that the biggest stars on YouTube are people like yourself, I assume that trend will continue as pretty much anyone can now produce videos which appeal to large viewing audiences.

  4. I think that the sense of intimacy that computer interaction creates has something to do with the lean-forward vs lean-back. Most people aren’t watching this stuff on their big screens even if they have installed the technologies. Video quality is also better on the small screen simply because it takes more pixels to create a large HD image. Frankly YT still looks like crap on a 50″ plasma..then there is that pesky old bandwidth issue.

  5. Kevin, if you’d like I could write a short article as to why I think your long standing predictions have not come to pass yet. Of course I’m no expert in the field and am more of a consumer than than a content producer, but maybe you’d like a different perspective. I’d put my thoughts here, but I’m not sure what the character limit for these comments is.

  6. Online video is still perceived as the domain of amateurs. Quality still matters to most people. Even if it’s just the perception of quality.

  7. I like the snow, but I have to say that I hate how annoyingly easy it is to open the ShareThis and Save/Share windows on my way to open the comments.

  8. I sent you some predictions and a long-winded story called “Wicked Awesome Films – A YouTube Story” – do with it what ye will.

    As for the predictions, the “lean-back” will come to pass, eventually. Check out my two-screen remote idea…

  9. @7, I’ve mentioned this already…Not unless your Nutcheese, Maryeeeland or MDJ do you make things happen around here. 😉 We are the WVFF backrow cockroaches….hehee…Nutcheese, I said cock!

    Oh Jan!? Oh God of Blogs…help us! 🙂

    p.s I like the snow…it relaxes me. Like dried flake boogers flying from my nose.

  10. The first time I saw the snow, I thought I was having another flashback and leaned forward in my chair to enjoy the upcoming hallucination. Nothing was forthcoming. I was a little disappointed. But then I remembered the cheese. It used to move on this blog’s old banner. I saw it.

  11. “I’m still surprised at how fast AND slow this online-video space is maturing.”

    Three words – ‘It’s the economy.’ A $23Trillion debt is pretty big stuff. I don’t think anyone could systematically count that high in one lifetime.

    Let’s see, the average life span being roughly 75 years…
    86,400 seconds in a day x 365 x 75 that’s come’s to about 2,366,520,000 seconds.

    anyhow, have any topics in mind?

    HouseKeeping & Reminders:
    the snow is temp, through the New Year, tis the season people! But I know the script can makes your computer run a little harder, notice fewer flakes… however, if it’s driving you to pitch forks and rope the plug can be pulled, grinches.

    anonymous – I’m going to switch the icons let me know what you like.
    if you’re annoyed by sharthis there’s a couple of plugin blocks

    FYI – If anyone is concerned about their comments not showing up subscribe or login to your wordpress account, pick your own icon, this blog gets tons of spam and the filter doesn’t always work correctly, just ask mdj. Don’t contact Kevin about it, he gets more e-mail spam than the blog. This might sound strange, but if you take the time and post something long and it doesn’t appear, write another comment asking, “Where’s my comment?”

    What triggers some of the filters is timing or your IP address, yes everything you type on the nets can be traces so keep those angry death threats to a minimum. If your IP is similar or the same as a known spammer or if you are unknowingly spreading germs the WPfilter will toss you in the irregular box for mass deletion, it doesn’t care how good looking you are.

  12. Hi Kevin,

    I would argue that lean forward/lean back consumption of video depends on the type of content as well. A 2 hour summer hit is better on a blu-ray played/HD TV, but 2 minute baby dancing video makes sense on Youtube/laptop.

    Agree wholeheartedly with “some fierce protectionism by big-stake players.” Although, software like PlayOn are making it easy for that chasm to disappear.

  13. I was thinking about the lean forward lean back thing in church this morning. I subscribe to my church’s YT account, and the other day they posted this video about some other church we’re supporting…it was about 7 minutes long. I found when I tried to watch it, I got bored, clicked elsewhere, skipped through parts. This morning they played it on the projector, and I was captivated.

    Is it the small screen? Is it having the distractions at my fingertips? I’m not sure.

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