Draft: Online-Video Predictions for 2009

I’m drafting my 2009 predictions for online video. I’m trying really hard not to repeat previous predictions, and to be realistic about what can happen in a year. This space has made enormous changes in 2008. Last month I made more on YouTube advertising revenue than I made in a month from my first job out of business school. Still not enough to live on, but a trend that I hope continues.

Here are some initial predictions, and I hope you expert readers will chime in. I’m rushing off to get the kids out the house, so this is just “top of mind” stuff:

  1. More amateurs will make full-time living via video ad revenue
  2. Dramatic shifts of online spending to video advertising: especially cost-per-click ads around relevant content
  3. 2009 is the year of the “semi pros.” The monetization is not significant enough for major players, but we’ll see many vloggers replaced by clever comedy troupes that adapt content for web… and create addictive content cheaply.
  4. SEO will awaken marketers to the potential of video– if I can get a top organic placement by tagging a popular video appropriately, that’s a short cut to the top of Google… a coveted spot.
  5. YouTube will continue to grow as market leader, but I believe some of the 2nd tier players will increase share. As the market matures, YouTube will remain #1, but the other sites (Yahoo, MSN) will start to attract new audiences, and steal share.
  6. Monetization options will greatly increase. Google will pressure YouTube to monetize the site, not because it needs cash but because it knows that it can’t attract professional content without better ways to monetize.
  7. We’ll see standardization of video ads, and new models like “overlay” (InVideo ads) that are less intrusive than pre-rolls but provide viewers with relevant video content.
  8. More of YouTube views will occur off YouTube via embedded video on other sites… as long as site owners can access free content and monetize the views.

What else?

35 Replies to “Draft: Online-Video Predictions for 2009”

  1. 1. yes
    2. maybe, depends on the economy – see Viacom vs TWC
    3. agree – I’m hoping it will
    4. a new industry burgeoning
    5. yes
    6. maybe. google is making cut backs
    7. umm I hate overlays going to find a way to strip them, hard to get past pre rolls.
    8. agree

    How about predictions of what the public is looking for in content?
    I think ‘how to get a job’ will be very popular next year.

  2. More or less, I agree. A lot of the “d-listers” will probably start earning reasonable incomes, as the snowball effect on videos builds up (more videos to watch means more potential income).

    I think 2009 will be the year when a lot of companies that used to scoff at YouTube will jump onboard.

    When I came onto YouTube three-ish years ago, you didn’t want you boss to know you were doing it, or you’d probably get canned. As we move into 2009, I believe more employers will drop their belief that having an employee with a YouTube account is a bad thing, and give it the acceptance of other creative hobbies, such as community theatre or whatnot. I’d still avoid putting it on your resume, unless you’re trying to get a job in creative media, though!

  3. Oh wait! Here’s another prediction.

    Viacom will end up ruling the world, and all of it’s inhabitants. I’m pretty sure that by the end of the year, we will all be mining in caves for diamonds as Viacom’s slaves if they keep growing at this rate.

    Woops! I insulted Viacom. They are probably going to send a hitman to kill me now.

  4. @5 No, they can’t kill the help. Who would do the diamond mining?

    They will, however, sue Kevin into oblivion for allowing the word “Viacom” to remain posted on his website. Then, once they’ve taken all his money and possessions, they’ll point out that there’s this Diamond Mine in West Virginia they own…

  5. ok I want to change the tenor of this thread and figure out how we can apply all this crap Kevin’s been talking about for two+ years.

    We are all pretty capable people, most of us, some of us, ok, a few of us, and we all come with an array of talents. IOW, were not completely dysfunctional. So I’d like to initiate a proposal and couple that with the prediction of, yes we can!

    How do we sort all this out and produce something that will generate an income, with the minimal amount of work, and no money down?

    This is the net, other than connection costs there must be a way to generate a steady flow of income that doesn’t scam people, provides some sort of service; whether entertainment or information, and is enjoyable.

    By combining our efforts we should be able to come up with something good, Yes?

    Let’s not be greedy, but creative and see if we can secure… errr.. something ?

    So no matter how strange they might sound dream big and throw out some ideas who knows what will stick.

  6. @11 yeah, brain storm anything goes, it can go covert later.
    I was thinking of all the talented people who grace this board and if we put our combined efforts and mix it up we should be able come up with something, If Geroge Bush can be president, we can do anything.

    If you think in terms of marketing, this lot has it all: branding, demographics, tenacity, talent and we have technology. Who here can’t turn on a computer? Who here doesn’t know how to find it for free or nearly free? Who here doesn’t know a scam, cept Kevin, when they see one? If you think of all the strengths the people here have there’s bound to be something in the ooze ready to bubble up.
    Just grab a brain ladle and see what happens.

  7. @8 Thanks a lot, Brindle. Because I was completely serious.

    and @9,11,12, and 13

    Count me in…whatever you are talking about. I like to be included in fun things. Hey! It’s a new year. A whole bunch of crap could happen!

  8. Well, whatever the system developed is, it needs a new system of payment, or at least something trackable.

    There’s an idea – revenue on videos being based on viewer rated-quality. The current gooTube approach is pretty much to charge an advertiser based on how many times an ad is clicked or viewed, and has no bearing on whether or not the video was relevant, or good for that matter. So, allow viewers to rate a video, and that rating directly corresponds to a pay rate for an advertised video.

    What about this: The person who posts the video/whatever actually gets to pick the ads they want to play next to their videos. Giving the content creator this sort of flexibility means videos better crafted towards the advertising market, which means higher conversion, etc, etc. For example, on the NBC New Years Eve bash, they had several clips of these folks dancing in Eniva hats. Surprise surprise, the commercial break had eniva commercials! Let the content creators have some say in who they advertise with, and everyone wins.

    There are a couple ideas I pulled out of my bum at this very second. It’s not a complete concept, but hey, advertising is a good thing to consider.

  9. @13 oh sooooooooooo important!
    @14 that’s the spirit!
    @15 advert is very important, now we need ideas to put under them. btw, I saw the NYC Eniva thing and I was wondering when the camera was going to climb into that one couple’s kissing mouths. There’s a definite danger with live advertising. More than a few people were grossed out, while a fewer still were turned on. Who ever was in charge of that didn’t think things through.
    @17 xyz.
    @18 see what I mean, straight forward tenacity!

  10. Nalts,

    Do you think we’ll see more “sponsored” content in ’09? Like product placement or advertorial content? It seems to me that just bashing people over the heads with more post-roll and overlay is a game of diminshing returns.

    Of course the content would have to be clearly labeled and done in a non-invasive way, but do you think you as a video creator would be open to it if someone from Coke said – hey make a video and throw a plot line around the soda or put a Coke can in your hand at the high-point.

    Do you see that evolving as a form of advertising that isn’t exactly just ads buffered up against creative, but more of a combination of the two sponsored & creative?

  11. @21 that was great! – I’m not too off from some of his predictions.

    The GPS thing I would have never thought of, I’d never get one, so don’t care. I must be old fashion I like maps, they still work.

    I agree with his prediction on the mind control gaming device – I don’t think it will work well either and it’s reminiscent of the RDIF Chip; comes with a whole lot of creepy. Get your Tin Hats here!

    I picked the Android months ago, but I think there will be a small, but growing battle between Google and Apple, not unlike PC vs MAC. How big a battle depends on the health of Steve Jobs, but Google will win in sales regardless, it’s cheaper, does more.

    Like will I ever shut up about bandwidth wars? NO! The sky is falling and the end is near! Get your net neutrality on now before it’s too late! You’ve been warned repeatedly.

    A mass security breech was expected. C’mon, just look at Vista fercrinoutloud! but he did catch me off guard with the size of the breech he’s predicting. I’m beginning to wonder… conspiracy…. Those Tin Hats may come in handy after all.

  12. @15 – The idea on CPM being at least partially dependent on the rating of a video is genius. I can’t believe no one has thought of that. If people like content, it’s more likely to keep them around during any intrusion, therefore it’s better content for advertising.

    Someone tell the head of the ad division.

  13. @24

    Yeah, I have a policy of deleting haters comments and ignoring them completely, but I was VERY tempted to leave that one up.

    However my clone, who looks identical to me except happens to be a few shades more red (which couldn’t at all be due to the fact that the camera white balance got bumped) thought I had to wipe that one out too.

    Oh yes, with my brilliant advertising ideas and clever videos, I’m sure to make someone with enough traction to steal my creativity a very wealthy person. Yes indeed.

  14. RE: This may or may not fly, but it’s there and available. I created an area in the Forum called “combining efforts.” It’s set to private, as requested, so you can’t see it unless you are login. Test it out. If you are seriously interested in the topic and can’t access the thread it’s because you need approval. I’ve approved a few people, but not all, so don’t get mad, just msg me and let me know. Also, if you aren’t known to anyone here it’s best not to hide behind an anonymous IP or anything .ru, k? thanks

  15. (click)

    If you can’t see that link, you’re not logged in, or not part of the group. (See jischinger about joining details.)

    If I can see it, it must be working.

  16. @30: This is what I get when I click on the link scmj provided:

    vBulletin Message

    mcase1013, you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:

    1. Your user account may not have sufficient privileges to access this page. Are you trying to edit someone else’s post, access administrative features or some other privileged system?
    2. If you are trying to post, the administrator may have disabled your account, or it may be awaiting activation.

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