I’m drafting my 2009 predictions for online video. I’m trying really hard not to repeat previous predictions, and to be realistic about what can happen in a year. This space has made enormous changes in 2008. Last month I made more on YouTube advertising revenue than I made in a month from my first job out of business school. Still not enough to live on, but a trend that I hope continues.
Here are some initial predictions, and I hope you expert readers will chime in. I’m rushing off to get the kids out the house, so this is just “top of mind” stuff:
- More amateurs will make full-time living via video ad revenue
- Dramatic shifts of online spending to video advertising: especially cost-per-click ads around relevant content
- 2009 is the year of the “semi pros.” The monetization is not significant enough for major players, but we’ll see many vloggers replaced by clever comedy troupes that adapt content for web… and create addictive content cheaply.
- SEO will awaken marketers to the potential of video– if I can get a top organic placement by tagging a popular video appropriately, that’s a short cut to the top of Google… a coveted spot.
- YouTube will continue to grow as market leader, but I believe some of the 2nd tier players will increase share. As the market matures, YouTube will remain #1, but the other sites (Yahoo, MSN) will start to attract new audiences, and steal share.
- Monetization options will greatly increase. Google will pressure YouTube to monetize the site, not because it needs cash but because it knows that it can’t attract professional content without better ways to monetize.
- We’ll see standardization of video ads, and new models like “overlay” (InVideo ads) that are less intrusive than pre-rolls but provide viewers with relevant video content.
- More of YouTube views will occur off YouTube via embedded video on other sites… as long as site owners can access free content and monetize the views.