I’m drafting my 2009 predictions for online video. I’m trying really hard not to repeat previous predictions, and to be realistic about what can happen in a year. This space has made enormous changes in 2008. Last month I made more on YouTube advertising revenue than I made in a month from my first job out of business school. Still not enough to live on, but a trend that I hope continues.
Here are some initial predictions, and I hope you expert readers will chime in. I’m rushing off to get the kids out the house, so this is just “top of mind” stuff:
More amateurs will make full-time living via video ad revenue
Dramatic shifts of online spending to video advertising: especially cost-per-click ads around relevant content
2009 is the year of the “semi pros.” The monetization is not significant enough for major players, but we’ll see many vloggers replaced by clever comedy troupes that adapt content for web… and create addictive content cheaply.
SEO will awaken marketers to the potential of video– if I can get a top organic placement by tagging a popular video appropriately, that’s a short cut to the top of Google… a coveted spot.
YouTube will continue to grow as market leader, but I believe some of the 2nd tier players will increase share. As the market matures, YouTube will remain #1, but the other sites (Yahoo, MSN) will start to attract new audiences, and steal share.
Monetization options will greatly increase. Google will pressure YouTube to monetize the site, not because it needs cash but because it knows that it can’t attract professional content without better ways to monetize.
We’ll see standardization of video ads, and new models like “overlay” (InVideo ads) that are less intrusive than pre-rolls but provide viewers with relevant video content.
More of YouTube views will occur off YouTube via embedded video on other sites… as long as site owners can access free content and monetize the views.
Two hottest trends in online marketing – streaming video and video SEO – will take off in popularity in 2009. According to online marketing studies, Google’s universal search algorythms, which allow multimedia to appear in search results along with web page links, will change the look of Google search results. More video links and thumbnail images of video links will be seen on Google because more people are searching for video than website content.
I trust that marketers will start posting video content on YouTube if only to help SEO rankings. It works, and in fact Google (not surprisingly) is rather kind to video. Not only do my videos get indexed quickly for terms, but my thumbnail (the image) appears on results. You can’t buy that kind of attention using paid-search ads (remember the eye-trackers show that more than 80% of the attention goes to organic rankings not ads, and ads don’t permit images).
Folks, I’m going to tell you something. If this video doesn’t go “viral” I’m not just murdering the word viral. I’m declaring Christmas spirit dead forever.
Ponce, best known for The Retarded Policeman, has produced a “Smile the World” video that might very well be the finest Christmas song since “Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer.” And certainly the finest Christmas video since, well, “Christmas Vacation.”
I love this song, because it’s a wonderful medley of rock, humor and sincerity. The tweens will love the twang. The adolescents will dig the sexual references. The older dudes will adore the throw-back to glam rock. But most importantly, I am sad for anyone that looks at this with disdain because Ponce is retarded — and assume it’s exploitation. To me, this video reminds us that our mental and physical limitations are trumped by spirit. And the Perry brothers, dear reader, have spirit. I’ve met Ponce, and I can tell you that smile is as real as smiles get.
This is produced by Scott Allen Perry (THESAP) and his brother Josh Perry (PONCEMAN). You’ll see the brother’s parents and sister in the video — a full, family affair. Dirty Jenny performed guitar on the roof.
P.S. Double click the video to open YouTube, and treat yourself to full HD for this. It’s a visual masterpiece in addition to an earworm. A tribute to Glam Rock and, as its description boasts, “oozes yummy juice from every sonic pore.” And click “more” below for lyrics. You should sing along. It will reduce stress.
Indeed this 23-page “Social Media Predictions 2009″ article should be required reading for marketers… whether they’re concerned about Google buying Twitter, or whether they want to know what to do about “accidental” spokespeople versus the ones carefully programmed by PR groups (hint- don’t fight the undertoe, folks… support the vocal fans, especially if they have drawn a crowd). Example- if HappySlip makes a video about MacBookPro here’s a crazy idea, Mac. Send her one. Thank her. Cultivate a relationship.
Yesterday I urged marketers to pursue niches instead of wildly popular videos. But if video creators pursue small niches, their videos will get fewer views, and they’ll therefore make less money via YouTube’s Partner program (which shares ad revenues based not on the appeal of the videos but the total view count). Ideally creators will find “niches” that also have large appeal- like Michael Buckley’s WhatTheBuckShow.
This is a perpetual dilemma for me. I long for the days where I had a small audience and could acknowledge every comment. I knew who subscribed to me, and they tolerated a variety of my video styles. Sometimes the videos drew larger crowds, but they supported me even when the videos were barely seen or liked.
Here on WillVideoForFood, there are two sectors of participants. Those who “graze” for tips about video creation and marketing (they’re usually quiet). Then there are the WVFF “tribe members” who use the comment threads below as a lil’ community, and that’s much more rewarding. Even when you accuse me of offending Baby Jesus. Some of you happen to have a leg in each sector, and offer interesting commentary that exceeds the wisdom of my post (and you know who you are).
Intimacy is satisfying, and so is creating a video that I personally enjoy (like my “Dysfunctional Family,” which got fewer than 20K views). Sometimes I create a video I do like that becomes popular (Mall Pranks), but often my least favorite videos are viewed more. While I almost resent the fact that “Scary Maze” has 2.5 million views, it does help fill that giant void I call “the debt black hole.”
Following the heart or following the wallet? Ideally both, but sometimes it’s not practical.
The Vlogbrothers (Hank and John) helped orchestrate another “Project Awesome,” and I’m sad I missed participating. This thumbnail collection (right) is a collection of “Project 4 Awesome” videos, which are featured on YouTube’s homepage. Individual creators recognized a charity of their choice to help “end world suck.”
While I’m glad to see YouTube editors recognize this powerful grassroots movement, I’m far more struck by the image I saw 2 days ago. The most popular and highest-rated videos of December 18 were those created as part of this program.
The brothers didn’t need to feature the already popular Julia Nunes (Jaaaaaaa), but her “P4A/Office/Lupus” video was one of my favorites. First, I’m a huge fan. Second, you can see her sincerity and humility about asking viewers to help the Lupus foundation, even though a family member has Lupus. Third, she opens with the theme for my favorite television show since 1893 when TVs were invented. She’s going to knit a hat for the highest bidder on eBay (I awakened this morning, and grabbed my laptop, coffee and credit card… but alas, the bidding at $800 is past the Nalts price range).
John and Hank aren’t just interesting video creators, but very purposeful, intelligent and passionate. John’s an author, Hank a musician and more. And their viewers, who proudly call themselves “nerdfighters,” rally not just around the brothers, but around the values they share… ending world suck and all.
Folks, this is social media at its finest, and so far from self promotion known by many on YouTube (including myself). However it makes these creators and channels more appealing. For instance, I’ve seen the Elevator Show and met Woody, but his appeal for MS made me realize he’s not just funny- but he has a heart. It prompted me to watch about 10 episodes of his show that I hadn’t yet seen.
It will be interesting to see how the “grazers” of YouTube (those who surf specific videos or scan the homepage) will respond… will they roll their eyes and return to hot babes and cats? Or will they help the Nerdfighters grow the army of awesomeness?
Two closing thoughts:
There’s a lesson here. Sincerity is contagious as negativity.
Kudos to this group, and those who participated by making videos or helping rate them to the top for greater awareness! Sorry I was not among you this year. Seems Alan forgot to remind me.
I’m still procrastinating my AdAge article for online-video, but the process awakened me to something vital about online video. You see, when I was featured for the first time on YouTube it was mocking a “viral video genius.” It was meant to be a joke. Viral video was not an art form, and remains a mix of luck, timing and the impact of the video. But I’ve still been using the term “viral video” like it’s some sort of holy grail, and I’d like to change course in 2009.
Yes, Virginia. I said it. Viral video is dead. In fairness, it was a bad idea from the beginning. The term viral was around well before online-video and derives from the term “virus.” Needless to say, when I first used the term in interactive-agency pitches to pharmaceutical firms in 1999 and 2000, marketers were deeply confused.
There are three reasons I’d like to inject an anti-virus penicillin into the arm of marketing.
The term “virus” is not polite or accurate. Social media requires a new mindset where terms like “targets” and “bulls eye” aren’t exactly terms of endearment. Business is packed with war terms, as is sports. Even “retention” or “persistence” isn’t quite the same thing as winning a customer’s loyalty. So when you want a consumer to share your promotional message with their friends, a virus isn’t the connotation you’re after. The term even implies that the video spreads despite the carriers instead of as a result of their work.
Second, it’s increasingly difficult to go viral and virtually impossible to predict much less guarantee. I’ve done more than 700 videos, and only a few have gone “viral,” if that’s defined as millions of views. Fewer and fewer brands will have promotion that is so dang compelling that it will be passed along by consumers.
Third, going “viral” is hardly even a worthy goal. The “viral” obsession is based on a preoccupation with “total views” instead of the right views. In our hysteria to deliver big numbers, we’ve missed a core tenant of marketing that’s more vital than “reach, frequency and single-minded proposition.” It’s called targeting.
Example: Many of you WVFF readers may remember when Agency.com’s “Subway Pitch” process was documented on YouTube, and spread among interactive marketers and agencies. Agency.com lost the pitch, and the video reached key “insiders” of the medium even though it did not get many views by conventional measures. If I’m marketing a software product to human resource managers, I want my video viewed by HR people. Sure if it’s seen 10 million times, it’s likely some of them will be HR managers. But if only 2 percent are indeed my target, perhaps I’d rather 200,000 views on blogs read by HR managers.
So let’s get back to the basics. Online-video is growing wildly, and gambling on a “viral hit” is far riskier than identifying and promoting via select channels or video creators. There are two ways to help ensure online-video investment reaches the right people:
ensure media buys are focused on the right audience (demographics or otherwise).
partner with popular video shows and creators (professional and amateur) that have already aggregated your most-valuable consumers.
If you’re marketing a men’s health product called “Macho Cologne,” do you buy an ad in Men’s Health (or try to get an article written about your product). Or would you launch Macho Cologne Magazine, and pray people might find it, and read it? If I’m marketing cat food, I don’t want to create my own cat videos and launch a channel. I want my ads associated with already popular animal video channels and creators (and this is getting easier with Google keywords available on YouTube). And if there’s a popular pet show that features cats, an even higher-impact model would be to sponsor the creator — especially if they have a proven ability to attract regular crowds (not just a one-hit wonder, but regular viewers/subscribers). The combination of sponsored video and advertisements is just the right cocktail is more likely to work.
Michael Buckley was on CNN discussing the YouTube Partnership program, and how it has allowed him to follow his passion full-time. I’m hoping Buckley’s recent press can remind people of two things. First, this space has grown up. I predicted people would be earning 6-figure incomes in 2007 and I was too ambitious. But now folks like KipKay on Metacafe (who earned 6-figures last year, but has slowed down significantly) and Michael Buckley (WhattheBuckShow) are proving that it’s possible. Second, Buckley reminds us to be realistic. Buckley worked like crazy, has crowd-gathering talent, and promotes himself well. Buckley is on Inside Edition tonight, and the media seems rather interested in the notion that people can quit their jobs and live independently via YouTube.
Want to make a living on YouTube? Some tips
Remember it won’t happen overnight.
Find a niche. Buckley is appealing to celebrity-watchers that like a regular online digest.
Promote yourself, and ensure you use copyright-free content.
RSS or read this blog often- it’s dedicated to helping creators make income (and show advertisers how to enhance their brands via known YouTube creators.
Create a lot of content that people want- much of Buckley’s revenue is due to his constantly topical videos, and residual income he earns from his collection. For instance, the vast majority of my income comes from continuous views to the top videos I’ve created that continue to get views.
You’ll need to be a top YouTube creator to live from its advertising sharing, but many of us are supplementing our income. I maintain that the highest earning comes from “sponsored videos.” These aren’t easy to find, but they’re nice income.
Buckley had a modest income before going full-time, and that helps. I’ve got four kids and a mortgage, so it will be a while before YouTube can match my day-job income. But it’s a fun way to make an additional income source, and my video revenue is certainly more than I made in my first job post MBA.
Kevin "Nalts" Nalty is one of the most-viewed YouTube comedians with nearly 800 short online videos seen more than 74 million times. He also consults with top brands to help them engage in social media & video (check www.NaltsConsulting), and is chief strategical officer at Hitviews.com.
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This is a perpetual dilemma for me. I long for the days where I had a small audience and could acknowledge every comment. I knew who subscribed to me, and they tolerated a variety of my video styles. Sometimes the videos drew larger crowds, but they supported me even when the videos were barely seen or liked.
The Vlogbrothers (Hank and John) helped orchestrate another “Project Awesome,” and I’m sad I missed participating. This thumbnail collection (right) is a collection of “Project 4 Awesome” videos, which are featured on YouTube’s homepage. Individual creators recognized a charity of their choice to help “end world suck.”
Yes, Virginia. I said it. Viral video is dead. In fairness, it was a bad idea from the beginning. The term viral was around well before online-video and derives from the term “virus.” Needless to say, when I first used the term in interactive-agency pitches to pharmaceutical firms in 1999 and 2000, marketers were deeply confused. 
If you’re marketing a men’s health product called “Macho Cologne,” do you buy an ad in Men’s Health (or try to get an article written about your product). Or would you launch Macho Cologne Magazine, and pray people might find it, and read it? If I’m marketing cat food, I don’t want to create my own cat videos and launch a channel. I want my ads associated with already popular animal video channels and creators (and this is getting easier with Google keywords available on YouTube). And if there’s a popular pet show that features cats, an even higher-impact model would be to sponsor the creator — especially if they have a proven ability to attract regular crowds (not just a one-hit wonder, but regular viewers/subscribers). The combination of sponsored video and advertisements is just the right cocktail is more likely to work. 
