The Devil is in the Device: How We’ll Consume Online-Video Via BoobTube in 2008

old_tv_set_rc.jpgI’m going out on a limb here, but I predict that independent web-to-tv boxes will be (albiet perhaps temporary) an inevitable part of the pending collision between our television sets and Internet. We’re past that debate about whether TV or online-video will prevail. There will be a hybrid model, and quite frankly I can’t wait to consume my online-videos with the ease of TiVo surfing. I just don’t watch television anymore and the cable and telcom providers have made that an easy withdrawal.

Months ago, I would have bet that cable and telcom monoliths could successfully dominate this space with their own connectivity, equipment, and customer base. But Verizon’s latest release of its Fios TV video interface has convinced me of otherwise. It’s rather hopeless, and we should expect nothing more.
Despite continued investments by cable (Comcast) and telcom (Verizon) providers — which includes fiber and expensive capital —  they’re going to be dissintermediated in the short term. Sure they’re winning customers with competitive bundled deals for cable, phone and television. And they have a built advantage because we want a turnkey solution and it’s hard to bypass them unless you want a satellite. But they’re big, slow, and focused more on securing their market position than innovating.

Fios TV SucksWhile the bundling (phone, TV and internet access) is quite economically tempting, the television ‘user experience’ is what real-estate agents call functional obsolescence– it’s a deal breaker. For the past year I’ve suffered through Verizon’s slow, counter-intuitive, buggy and frustrating television interface and would have canceled long ago but for my wife and kids’ desire to watch news and children shows. A few weeks ago, Verizon rolled out an entirely new interface, which is prettier but almost as convoluted. Comcast, last I checked, wasn’t much better. I miss my delightful, buttery TiVo experience, and have two TiVo units depreciating because I can’t figure out how to get them to play nicely with the Fios-mandated Motorolas. And I’m not willing or able to pay a third recurring fee: a TiVo service fee, in addition to my monthly TV bill and rental equipment toll. If only I could just dump the Motorola and pay Fios a cable fee alone.

You see, Fios TV forces me to rent a Motorola media box (actually, I could rent a digital converter, but that doesn’t cost much less per month). I rent two of these stupid units (living room and bed room) and they communicate with each other like Hollywood stars in their 3rd month of marriage.

I expect a cable bill. But a monthly “rental toll” for a mandated unit is reminiscent of Ma-Bell charging $5 a month to my grandparents for a “model T”-like rotary phone (which everyone seems to overlook until the parents die, someone has to clean up the estate, and the children discover they’ve paid thousands in years of renting a phone that could have cost $2.99 at Walmart).

appletv.jpgMeanwhile, I almost tossed my AppleTV months ago, but have recently been spending a lot more time using it. It cost about $300, there’s no recurring fee, and the interface is getting better. I can enjoy any video I download or import as an MP4 (and my handy VisualHub takes care of the conversions for videos I download elsewhere). More importantly, it’s how I’m beginning to consume a lot of my YouTube videos.

On the negative side, iTunes has its share of limitations: a paltry video-purchase selection via the iTunes store, a ridiculous rental service I won’t soon use again (after a “Live Free or Die Hard” expired before I ever started watching it), and this baffling confusion of trying to synch media across various iPods and Mac accounts.

And frankly, I’m quite sick of being deprived by Mac of sharing or viewing my purchased videos and movies– legally, across my own digitalia.

ant farmThat makes me so angry, I’ve starting to resort to getting movies via other mischievous means. Last night I even fell for a Google text ad that boasted a $35 one-time “free movie downloads for life” scam. For my impossible-to-refund fee, I received a special log-in website, password and instructions… which basically provided me a link to LimeWire (a free p2p tool). Caveat emptor I suppose. I was reminded of when, at the age of 9, I bought a “remote-control ghost: flies as high as 100 feet” from a comic book ad. Eight weeks later I received a white plastic bag, a balloon, and 100 feet of string. Even Sea Monkeys and the Ant Farm were better deals.

But something promising occurred quietly in the past week. AppleTV pushed out an upgrade, and now my YouTube viewing is slightly closer to the experience of watching videos via YouTube.com directly.

Initially, YouTube viewing via AppleTV provided a fraction of the experience permitted on YouTube. I couldn’t even look at my subscriptions or sort recent videos by creator. This limited YouTube interface is part of the reason I dumped my iPhone after two weeks (AT&T’s poor connectivity was another reason). But now I can at least go beyond watching the top YouTube videos of the day. I can view a random subset of my subscriptions (for odd reasons, they only let me peer into my first dozen or so, which is a bit constraining when you’ve subscribed to 800 people).

If you’re not a YouTube addict, the AppleTV makes less sense, and Apple won’t soon penetrate the market with these units unless they improve the interface further, renegotiate failed content deals and partner with electronic manufacturers or bring down the unit price.

So what’s ahead in 2008?

  1. First, AppleTV needs to start embedding ads. As a creator, I’m not getting profiting from viewers using AppleTV and neither is Apple or YouTube yet. If Apple wants to leverage near ubiquitous high bandwidth, thereby circumventing or coexisting with cable/phone providers, it’s going to have to find an ad-supported model first.
  2. Watch for similar boxes that are inexpensive and provide access to online-video via television. I still haven’t opened my free Sling Box so maybe that’s a step in the right direction?
  3. If the programmers and networks (CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc.) were more organized, they’d cooperate to build a model that could dissintermedia cable and phone monopolies (or at least develop a media-friendly model that offsets the power of these dominatrix-like “last mile” providers. But that’s unlikely because the media companies hate each other, and monopoly legislation would hamper it.
  4. Instead, watch for a startup (whatever happened to Joost?) that creates something similar to the AppleTV experience: elegant, content rich, ad supported and no mandated monthly fee initially. They’ll share ad revenue with media companies or amateurs and create inventory that piques the interest of advertising networks.
  5. Once a few of these independent boxed units establish a base, they can begin charging a modest monthly fee. Heck, I’d pay AppleTV a few bucks a month just to ensure I can view YouTube without the current restrictions. How am I to choose between Lemonette, Renetto
  6. Naturally, the electronic manufacturers are trying to squeeze into this space, but it’s not a play built for either a phone company or consumer-product electronic manufacturer. The interim winner will be one that — ala Apple with its recent offerings — puts the user experience above all else.
  7. There are probably other players creeping into this spaces of which I’m not even aware. Know of any?

Author: Nalts

Hi. I'm Nalts.

8 thoughts on “The Devil is in the Device: How We’ll Consume Online-Video Via BoobTube in 2008”

  1. TV, internet, phone– it’s all about control. There aren’t many companies working to give users more control. But here are some ideas.

    Have you seen this device?
    http://www.neurostechnology.com/

    The Fios dvr interface is pretty bad compared to TiVo, but it is easily 5 times better than what we had with Comcast. Comcast’s DVR was also a Motorola– maybe even the same model as Fios uses, but the interface was abysmal- awkward, confusing, redundant in places, etc.

    I’ve been saving my pennies for a Mac when our Win XP machine dies, but after the three females in my family got ipods of various flavors and I’ve been forced to learn iTunes, I must say I’m less than impressed with Apple’s vaunted ease of use. I have spent many evenings trying to get the program to play mp3s that play perfectlly well on my iRiver T10, my Squeezebox, a Nokia n810, and my PC running Ubuntu Linux. iTunes? Not so much. Apple is decidedly one of the bad guys when it comes to making things easy on media users who venture beyond the ipod gated community.

    The Neuros device looks good to me for its capabilities, but also because it’s an Open Source (TM http://www.opensource.org/) device. That means, for me, that its development is and will be dictated by the needs of users. Connecting all of our digitalia (I like that word!) shouldn’t be so darn hard, and wouldn’t be if companies would stop trying to lock down our media to their formats, etc. If I were into video as much as you are, I’d be taking a hard look at the Neuros and at MythTV (http://www.mythtv.org/).

    I have high hopes for the Android phone OS and the opening up of the phone networks. Verizon wants $5/month per phone for unlimited texting! What a rip-off!

    If Comcast et al get their way on ending network neutrality, they’ll be able to choke YouTube out of the TV game. I don’t have high hopes for companies other than YouTube making it easier for me to watch YouTube.

  2. Revver, the Los Angeles-based video sharing/advertising network, is charging advertisers as much as $35 per thousand views of certain videos.

    While some videos get just a $3 CPM, this higher number is a very positive indication of a advertisers willing to pay high rates surrounding quality, independently produced video. Revver, splits the revenue 50/50 with the content creator

  3. Nalts,

    Fantastic Post! I have been pondering these same things. I wonder how long it is gonna be before the computer and the TV are one single machine. I’m calling 5 years (tops), before complete melding.

  4. Nalts, I’m beginning to think that either:

    1. You have a supernatural ability to crank out content
    2. You have cloned yourself (at least twice)
    3. You don’t sleep

    How do you do it man?

    That being said, your 2008 insights give me hope, but also make me nervous. Since Link and I have basically committed to this online video thing full-time, it’s comforting to think that some of the competition will thin out, but it’s a bit daunting to think how we’re going to keep our heads above water throughout this year. Ah, sweet, sweet insecurity.

    Thanks for always speaking wisdom in to these issues that are close to my heart.

  5. I just read this entire post while listening to you on the podcast with Toby and Ben Relles. That means I didn’t understand anything I heard or read. But I did notice that Ben did a hell of a lot more talking than you. I wonder what the significance of that is.

    Just trying to stir up a little controversy, that’s all.

  6. Now I know why I don’t switch from Dish Network and my 2 DVRs to that all-in-one service that AT&T is offering — it must really suck!
    Thanks for an extremely informative article

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