How’d I Do With My 2007 ‘Online Video’ Predictions?

I’m starting to write this post not having even looked at my 2007 predictions once in the past 11 months. But it’s so rare that someone owns up to their predictions — especially when they were wrong.

So it’s time to score myself (letter grade style) on how accurately I predicted the future of this volatile space we call online video.

My biggest miscalculation was predicting that YouTube would die! And I was very critical of Google’s acquisition. It’s still not profitable, but it has an incredible share and Google as a parent. Contrast that with Revver, which I would have invested in before YouTube any day. Revver’s still moving along, but delivering far fewer views and revenue to creators than I would have guessed. D minus here.

  1. Online video and television collide then converge (D-). Wow is this happening more slowly than I hoped and guessed. We’ve seen some trivial collision with YouTube and Viacom battles, but we’re far from what I’d call convergence. WebJunk and iWatch aren’t what I expected. I wanted to see more cable boxes streaming amateur content. While MacMini and iPhone are a step in the right direction, the Joosts are moving slowly. Then again- Rome wasn’t burned in a day.
  2. Consolidation of online video sites will increase exponentially (B+). This is happening, but in a different way than I expected. Instead of larger properties acquiring the little guys, the consolidation is largely with YouTube/Google. The views and traffic to the smaller guys are rising, but the bulk of the share is growing in the long tail or with legacy players moving online.
  3. amanda.jpgViral video creators will “cross over” to television (F). What ever happened to Amanda Congdon or ZeFrank shows? Has anyone really crossed over? Sure LonelyGirl became a household name, and Oprah featured YouTube. But we can unfortunately count the amateurs who are now on television on one hand. My second prediction was that celebrities would move online. I did nail that one (FunnyOrDie much), and they’re going to squash some of us amateurs in 2008. They have built equity and they’re getting far edgier than I would have imagined. In this “Green Team” clip, Will Ferrell pretends to rape a woman. It’d be great if the stars collaborated with the weblebrities like Clinton Kelly and sweet Katie Couric did with me. Alas, we amateurs need them more than they need us.
  4. Many television shows will develop online manifestations (A-). This has happened and continues to happen. Webisodes and blogs are promoted on television shows in a desperate attempt to move audiences online in places networks can monetize.
  5. Consortiums will form for economies of scale (C+). We’re seeing some small production houses focusing on low-cost, decent value webisodes and internet video (that they can upsell to networks). ForYourImagination and Next New Networks are good examples. But the big network consortiums (the Viacom attempt to compete with YouTube) fizzled.
  6. Select amateur video creators will begin to make a full-time living without “crossing over” tocrystal_ball_juggling.jpg television (B-). This is the saddest part of the online-video revolution. I probably made more last year in advertising revenue than I did this year. Sure there are select creators that have made nice money (Kipkay on Metacafe did nearly $80K, and I’m sure some Revver directors have made that or more).
  7. A major news story will break via live (or close to live) footage by “citizen journalists” holding cameras (A). I got this one right. Remember the Virginia Tech footage shot by an amateur? CNN and other news networks are now inviting amateur video clips.
  8. Marketers will get smarter about how they gain consumer mindshare through online video (D-). Well… I tried.
  9. lonelygirl15.jpgReal vs. fake will be a major 2007 theme (C+). People are getting a bit more savvy about the difference between real vlogging and LonelyGirl storytelling. And the pop in online video is, in part, due to our desperation for something authentic.
  10. The “big boy” sites are going to start sharing advertising revenue with select creators like some smaller sites (A+). Got that one right. YouTube is now making more and more amateurs “Partners,” which was once reserved strictly for media companies.

10 Replies to “How’d I Do With My 2007 ‘Online Video’ Predictions?”

  1. Overall you get a “C” .

    Kevin has some great ideas but unfortunately his playmates refuse to put them into practice, this is what brought down Kevin’s overall mark.

    A good effort and we look forward to Kevin’s 2008 predictions.

  2. not too bad Kevin, a matter of perspective – took Radio 40 years, half for TV at 20 years, cable half that at 10 years and if you start with Web 2.0 or with You Tube this would be year 2 or the year 2 Y. T.
    We have 3 years to go, so some of your predictions should be good until 2010.

    I can’t really imagine what will follow the net, embedded chip implants maybe? Have to look at the spaces in between first.

  3. As a young marketer I was hoping that there would be a better understanding this year of what online video truly should be as well. Well…..there’s always 2008 to hope that the people who make the decisions, and never watch online video, will figure it out.

  4. Regarding point number 8 (Marketers will get smarter about how they gain consumer mindshare through online video (D-). Well… I tried.), we are in the nascent of web video marketing. The Web Video Marketing Council ( is one organization established to promote web video marketing trends, resources, and new.

    During the course of 2007, a lot of attention has been paid to online video. Most of the online video coverage has revolved around online video advertising, video creators/UG video, and video sharing sites. Once marketers understand how they can leverage and generate results from web video marketing without relying on online video ads, this tactic will be part of the marketing mix. Hopefully in 2008, we will see more coverage about the web video marketing category.

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