Top 10 Online-Video Predictions for 2007

sit.jpgI pulled out my crystal ball this morning, and I’m predicting the most significant online-video highlights of 2007.

I’ll be citing these selectively at the end of 2007 (only those in which I was right).

Okay I didn’t use a crystal ball. This video tells a better story about the process I used to arrive at these today.

  1. Online video and television collide then converge. We’ve seen small steps toward this, but they’re trivial relative to what will happen in 2007. We’re first going to see some territorializing between online-video players and larger networks and media distributors. Then we’ll start to see great partnerships between major networks and online video sites, as well as deals with Verizon, Comcast and TiVo that give online video creators much broader exposure.
  2. Consolidation of online video sites will increase exponentially. Eventually there will be only a small hand-full of sites (GooTube, AOL, Yahoo) where people upload videos, because those sites will gain critical mass and cut exclusive deals upstream. Almost every industry starts with hundreds of players, consolidates to a dozen, and finally matures with 2-3 major entities. Small sites will get acquired or fade. There will still be niche sites like Break.com and special-interest sites.
  3. amanda.jpgViral video creators will “cross over” to television. We saw Amandon Congdon make the leap from Rocketboom to ABC recently. People with talent, like ZeFrank, will land a short segment on The Daily Show or some other television show. Ultimately this will make ZeFrank’s bloated ego explode — something we hope occurs live on Good Morning America. A few name-brand stars will decide they can move online without the hassle of networks. I don’t see any of these succeeding initially, but as the audience for “online video” surpasses (in some areas) television viewers, it will be hard for them to resist.
  4. Many television shows will develop online manifestations. This will include “behind the scenes” shots, extended storylines, and interactions with the show. Some shows will invite submissions by amateurs and even cast amateurs to participate.
  5. Consortiums will form for economies of scale. Viacom/Fox/NBC/CBS are already toying with an anti-YouTube play. This is as impossible to resist as it is to achieve airlift. Other consortiums will succeed. I see groups of independent online video amateurs forming copperatives to market their content to networks, or networks organizing the coops. Shows like RabbitBites will have higher odds of moving to mainstream when connected with similar content.
  6. Select amateur video creators will begin to make a full-time living without “crossing over” to television. Metacafe‘s CEO Arik Czerniak recently told me he anticipates his top amatuer creators will make six-figure incomes in 2007. I think he’s right. I’d also watch for people earning high revenue via Revver if the company rapidly expands its viewer base through affiliate/syndicate partnerships.
  7. crystal_ball_juggling.jpgA major news story will break via live (or close to live) footage by “citizen journalists” holding cameras. Remember the impact of the Rodney King footage? Consider how more of these we’ll see now that so many of us are equipped with cell phones that record video. And eventually we’ll see live footage from a cell phone in a major news story — a robbery, hostage situation or natural disaster. If the reporters can address the nation live via satellite, why can’t the amateur videographer via a video-enabled cell phone? It will look like garbage, but it will be horrifically real.
  8. Marketers will get smarter about how they gain consumer mindshare through online video. The self-created viral videos will give way to more creative partnerships between brands and top video creators. These deals will be efficient for marketers, and highly profitable for video creators with low budgets. We’ll see increasingly fewer $250K viral video series created by agencies, and more low-budget, fun videos that were inspired by amateurs but get the media support of advertising budgets.
  9. lonelygirl15.jpgReal vs. fake will be a major 2007 theme. People don’t understand that some videos are designed to be “story telling,” and others are real footage. LonelyGirl15 was an example of a deliberate ruse, but many other “are they real or not” videos are endlessly dissected by comments. This will catch media’s attention, since they’ll enjoy raising viewer concerns about the integrity and validity of this threatening medium.
  10. The “big boy” sites are going to start sharing advertising revenue with select creators like some smaller sites (Revver, Metacafe, Blip, Brightcove, Lulu). That means Google, YouTube, Yahoo and AOL will finally realize that good content means eyeballs. And eyeballs means more revenue.

Author: Nalts

Hi. I'm Nalts.

18 thoughts on “Top 10 Online-Video Predictions for 2007”

  1. You had me until “Marketers will get smarter”

    Smart Marketers? Isn’t that like Army Intelligence or Jumbo Shrimp?

  2. Hi Kevin,

    One thing I would add on the list is that video will be used more and more as a standard medium on general websites. In the same way as pictures are used today, we will see an explosion of videos.

    They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Video is worth a million. Videos make content more accessible and require a shorter attention span, which makes video a perfect medium for the web.

    This is what we believe at Myloanchoices. We are a personal finance service website and we use videos heavily to simplify the complex information about personal and secured loans.

    See explained in a video format.

    Jeff, if you had a minute I would be interested in your opinion on Myloanchoices.co.uk website.

    regards,

    Nigel

  3. Nice us of video on a site, Nigel. It makes the site more approachable. I’m not a fan of “auto-load” video (where it’s activated immediately), but it’s nice the way the segments are chunked. I hope your target audience is a hip, tongue-piercing crowd. 🙂

  4. Many of these things have already come to fruition in other forms

    1. fake vs. real is more of a theme of the last two years more than it is a prediction for the coming year

    2. saddam hussein’s hanging was captured by a camera phone,

    3. “frenzied kid opening christmas presents” helped to take viral content and turn it into traditional content.

    online video will never surpass television. it might come close in professionally crafted webisode style shows (put on by major networks for a fraction of the cost) but not as far as “funny” viral videos are concerned. there’s a reason why america’s funniest home videos has stayed on the air for 20 years, but never expanded beyond its simple format.

    my thoughts, anyhow.

    narnia

    good list though, helped to recap the last year or so of digital nonsense, trends and good times.

  5. >>>The self-created viral videos will give way to more creative partnerships between brands and top video creators.

  6. Six figures will be nice from MetaCafe, but I think to do that, people with regular series might have to join the site. Let’s all cross our fingers!

  7. U AMAZING and AWESOME ROLE MODEL. Your video of kids lit my heart up… ok, so now I don’t know what you do, but you’re talented… and I want you to work with me on my next movie. I directed RevoLOUtion which was from script I co-wrote with writer of
    THE DEER HUNTER – we were the first film to release theatrically and let the AUDIENCE PAY WHAT THEY THOUGHT IT WORTH -AFTER THE MOVIE… (MSNnbc clip on youtube) so i want you to see my film ARE YOU LOU? at
    http://www.areyoulou.com and check out my youtube page by googling bret carr,
    peace –

  8. It’s crazy that video and computers are merging at the rate that they are. With media center PC’s, and media extenders like the 360, its only a matter of time before TV’s and computers come together. In fact my TV has IE 5 Built in, and a direct connection to Ethernet.

  9. Good post. I think the biggest cross-over will be the amount of time people will watch tv programmes from the mainstream channels online, I know the beed (BBC_ as just launched their own channel software which you can download onto your tv and watch free tv, not bad.

    http://www.computer-deals.com.au

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