NOTE: Log your votes on the above tab “YouTube Bubble-Burst Pool.”
We’re having a WillVideoForFood Pool on when YouTube’s bubble bursts. I’m saying 67 days. Here’s how the pool works.
You guess the exact days between now and the bust, and submit that number as a comment. The bust will be defined by any of the following:
- YouTube falls from the number one position for online videos (it’s leading by miles so this won’t happen first)
- YouTube announces its sale to a large media player, who ultimately over commercialize, sanitize and ride the business down a black hole. The deal doesn’t have to be complete for this condition to be satisfied.
- YouTube has a cover story on its failed business model by any of the following publications: Newsweek, Time, Forbes, or Fortune.
The day one of these things happen, I’ll return to the post and find the winner. That winner will receive a “I Guessed the Date of YouTube’s Demise” t-shirt (custom made at CafeExpress) and a special WVFF blog post that hails the individual as the great forecaster of the end of YouTube and the beginning of the next generation of online video. This burst is a critical step in the maturity of this market, and I want to get it over with quickly. That’s why I’m going with 67 days.
Put in your vote. You gotta vote to win.
I’m guessing 79 days
124
…and the great tower fell and there was much gnashing of teeth and renting of clothes and the Tuberites mourned, wearing sackcloth and ash…
120 days
VCs may take a gamble, and pump more money in to encourage higher readings on the bullshit-o-meter, hoping to grab a bigger piece of the pie for the day when Rupert Murdoch gobbles it up.
Maybe we should be talking IPO here…
– no earnings
– high risk
– no business model
– uberhype / frenzied stupidity
– opportunity to jump on that cool Web 2.0 bandwagon
Nonetheless, I give it till late in the year, as investors (VCs) rush to sell losing assets as a write off…
December 21, 2006 – 149 days from today. (Also marks the winter solstice, the darkest, shortest day of the year. Coincidence? I think not.)
joe
http://www.WebVideoZone.com
PS – I used this calculator to figure it out:
http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duration.html
November 3rd 2006
Nov 13th 2006 and it will be bought
Nov 22 for the anniversary effect…119 days and counting
april 1st 2006!
August 27, 2006 ( always liked the people that bid $1 on the Price is Right because everyone else went over)
June 14, 2008
May 28, 2007
Does the Google takeover count?
If so – I say today October 10th 2006.
Yeah- but we closed it out in late September because Nielsen said it slipped to lower views than MySpace.
It sure was right !!!
24 september 07
Your site is a refreshing change from the majority of sites I have visited. When I first started visiting web sites I was excited by the potential of the internet as a resource and was very disappointed initially. You have restored my enthusiasm and I thank you for your efforts to share your insights and help the world become a better place.