Join the YouTube Bubble-Burst Pool… no cash required and t-shirt and fame await you

houseofcards.jpgNOTE: Log your votes on the above tab “YouTube Bubble-Burst Pool.”

We’re having a WillVideoForFood Pool on when YouTube’s bubble bursts. I’m saying 67 days. Here’s how the pool works.

You guess the exact days between now and the bust, and submit that number as a comment. The bust will be defined by any of the following:

  1. YouTube falls from the number one position for online videos (it’s leading by miles so this won’t happen first)
  2. YouTube announces its sale to a large media player, who ultimately over commercialize, sanitize and ride the business down a black hole. The deal doesn’t have to be complete for this condition to be satisfied.
  3. YouTube has a cover story on its failed business model by any of the following publications: Newsweek, Time, Forbes, or Fortune.

The day one of these things happen, I’ll return to the post and find the winner. That winner will receive a “I Guessed the Date of YouTube’s Demise” t-shirt (custom made at CafeExpress) and a special WVFF blog post that hails the individual as the great forecaster of the end of YouTube and the beginning of the next generation of online video. This burst is a critical step in the maturity of this market, and I want to get it over with quickly. That’s why I’m going with 67 days.

Put in your vote. You gotta vote to win.

16 Replies to “Join the YouTube Bubble-Burst Pool… no cash required and t-shirt and fame await you”

  1. …and the great tower fell and there was much gnashing of teeth and renting of clothes and the Tuberites mourned, wearing sackcloth and ash…

    120 days

  2. VCs may take a gamble, and pump more money in to encourage higher readings on the bullshit-o-meter, hoping to grab a bigger piece of the pie for the day when Rupert Murdoch gobbles it up.

    Maybe we should be talking IPO here…
    – no earnings
    – high risk
    – no business model
    – uberhype / frenzied stupidity
    – opportunity to jump on that cool Web 2.0 bandwagon

    Nonetheless, I give it till late in the year, as investors (VCs) rush to sell losing assets as a write off…

    December 21, 2006 – 149 days from today. (Also marks the winter solstice, the darkest, shortest day of the year. Coincidence? I think not.)


    PS – I used this calculator to figure it out:

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